The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine held the discussion on macroeconomic analysis and forecasting among leading experts in the area of macro-forecasting of public and private sectors. Based on the results of the discussion, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine published the next issue “Ukraine: Prospects for Development. Consensus Forecast” (December 2018).

It is commonly known that “consensus forecast” is the averaged performance indicator of key forecasting indices of Ukraine’s economic development, which is calculated as a median on the basis of expert assessments of the participants of the survey of leading specialists in the area of macro-analysis and forecasting.

The experts who took part in the discussion of macroeconomic forecast expect the GDP growth at the level of 3.1% based on the results of 2018, 3% in 2019, 3.1% in 2020 and 3.9% in 2021. In general, such estimates of the real GDP growth rate remained unchanged as compared to previous estimates in September consensus forecast.

According to the December consensus forecast, the consumer prices are expected to increase as well (on a December to December basis of the previous year) at the level of 10.1% in 2018, 8% in 2019, 6.9% in 2020 and 6% in 2021.

The most significant internal risks for the domestic economy proposed to experts for review and evaluation include maintaining the low credit activity of commercial banks; significant increase in gas tariffs for the population; exacerbation of the situation with labor activity (the factor of strengthening of labor migration and refugees); strengthening of devaluation trends in the foreign exchange market.

The most significant external risks in 2018-2021, like in previous surveys, include strengthening of hybrid threats to the national security of Ukraine, shortages of external financing and narrowing of access to international capital markets, narrowing of foreign sales markets due to high competition, strengthening of devaluation trends in the foreign exchange market, preservation of low credit activity of commercial banks and significant increase in gas tariffs for the population.

In the expert opinion, to achieve a sustainable economic development of Ukraine, it is necessary to switch in the long run to the investment model of economic development, which will allow a stable high growth at the level of 6-7%, taking into account qualitative structural changes. This direction corresponds to the Sustainable Development Goals which Ukraine has undertaken to implement.

The full issue “Ukraine: Prospects for Development. Consensus Forecast” (September 2018) is available at: https://bit.ly/2zUNAlK.

For reference

The discussions were attended by representatives of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine, the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, the NBU, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the IMF Mission to Ukraine, the State Research Institute of Informatization and Economic Modeling, State Educational Scientific Institution “Financial Management Academy”, State Institution “Institute of Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Science of Ukraine”, Institute of Evolutionary Economics, Institute of Demography and Social Studies named after M.V. Ptukha of the National Academy of Science of Ukraine, Institute of Research of Scientific and Technical Potential and History of Science named after H.M. Dobrov of the National Academy of Science of Ukraine, Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consultations, Federation of Trade Unions of Ukraine, UNIDO and UNICEF of Ukraine.